Reduction potential of GHG emissions from municipal solid waste incineration for power generation in Beijing

With rapid economic growth and massive urbanization, China faces the problem of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and the pressing need for development of alternative energy. MSW incineration for power generation is playing an increasingly important role in MSW management in China. In order to study the reduction of GHG emissions caused by MSW incineration for power generation, the GHG emissions under the baseline level is calculated by using Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) methodology. Then, the GHG emission reduction is estimated based on the improved upstream-operation-downstream (UOD) framework. Finally, the GHG emission reduction in Beijing is studied and forecasted through grey prediction model and scenario analysis, and the main factors affecting the reduction potential are identified. The results show that the GHG emission reduction target can be achieved through MSW incineration for power generation. Direct and alternative GHG emissions from MSW incineration are the main sources of emissions, while indirect emissions account for a small proportion. The MSW disposal volume, the moisture content of MSW, the installed capacity of biomass energy, the average line loss of power generation and the quantity of fossil fuels consumed by power generation are five important factors that affecting GHG emission reduction potential. It is recommended that the dominant form of waste disposal in China should be replaced by MSW incineration for power generation, and the full classification of MSW needs to be promoted. Furthermore, the installed capacity of biomass energy should be increased and the average line loss of power generation should be reduced.