Connectome-based predictive modeling of compulsion in obsessive–compulsive disorder

Abstract Compulsion is one of core symptoms of obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD). Although many studies have investigated the neural mechanism of compulsion, no study has used brain-based measures to predict compulsion. Here, we used connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify networks that could predict the levels of compulsion based on whole-brain functional connectivity in 57 OCD patients. We then applied a computational lesion version of CPM to examine the importance of specific brain areas. We also compared the predictive network strength in OCD with unaffected first-degree relatives (UFDR) of patients and healthy controls. CPM successfully predicted individual level of compulsion and identified networks positively (primarily subcortical areas of the striatum and limbic regions of the hippocampus) and negatively (primarily frontoparietal regions) correlated with compulsion. The prediction power of the negative model significantly decreased when simulating lesions to the prefrontal cortex and cerebellum, supporting the importance of these regions for compulsion prediction. We found a similar pattern of network strength in the negative predictive network for OCD patients and their UFDR, demonstrating the potential of CPM to identify vulnerability markers for psychopathology.