Simulation of regional groundwater levels in arid regions using interpretable machine learning models

Regional groundwater level forecasting is critical to water resource management, especially for arid regions which require effective management of groundwater resources to meet human and ecosystem needs. In this study Machine Learning and Deep Learning approaches - Support Vector Machine, Generalized Regression Neural Network, Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), Convolutional Neural Network, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Network- have been used to simulate the groundwater levels in the lower Tarim River basin (LTRB) which is an extreme dryland. The results showed that models developed here with easily available input data such as relative humidity, flow volume and distance to the riverbank can fully utilize spatiotemporally inconsistent groundwater monitoring data to predict the spatiotemporal variation of the groundwater system in arid regions where exist intermittent flow. The shapely additive explanations method was used to interpret the RF model and discover the effect of meteorological, hydrological and environmental variables on the regional groundwater. These explanations showed that the flow volume, the distance to the river channel and reservoir have a critical impact on groundwater changes. Within 300 m distance to the riverbank, groundwater would mainly be influenced by the flow volume and the distance to the reservoir. While far from the riverbank, these effects decreased gradually further away from the river course. The RF prediction results showed that in the next three years (2021-2023), the groundwater level on average may decline to -6.4 m, and the suitable areas for natural vegetation growth would be limited to 39% if no water conveyance in the LTRB. To guarantee the stability of ecosystems in the LTRB, it is necessary to convey the water annually. These results can support spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater levels predominantly recharged by intermittent flow, and form a scientific basis for sustainable water resources management in arid regions.