How Do Driving Factors Affect Vegetation Coverage Change in the Shaanxi Region of the Qinling Mountains?

Understanding the effects of natural and human disturbance factors on fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) is significant in the promotion of ecological and environmental protection. However, most of the relevant studies neglect to consider differences in the effect of driving factors on areas with different vegetation change characteristics. In this paper, we have combined Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall testing to identify degraded and restored areas. Differences in the impact of various factors on FVC in terms of degradation, restoration, and the whole region were distinguished quantitatively using the geodetector model. Additionally, the constraint line approach was used to detect the influence thresholds of factors on FVC. The results are shown as below: (1) FVC showed an overall improving trend, and vegetation restoration and degradation areas accounted for 69.2% and 22.0%, respectively. (2) The two dominant factors affecting FVC were Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and temperature for both degraded and restored regions. However, the explanatory power of precipitation was noticeably different between regions. (3) Most natural factors had a “convex” constraint effect on FVC, which gradually weakened with an increase in the variable below the threshold and vice versa. Human disturbance factors negatively constrained FVC, and the constraint effect increased with increased human activity. This study can help decision-makers optimize specific implementation policies relating to ecological restoration and sustainable development.