Identification of pollution source and prediction of water quality based on deep learning techniques

Semi-arid rivers are particularly vulnerable and responsive to the impacts of industrial contamination. Prompt identification and projection of pollutant dynamics are crucial in the accidental pollution incidents, therefore required the timely informed and effective management strategies. In this study, we collected water quality monitoring data from a typical semi-arid river. By water quality inter-correlation mapping, we identified the regularity and abnormal fluctuations of pollutant discharges. Combining the association rule method (Apriori) and characterized pollutants of different industries, we tracked major industrial pollution sources in the Dahei River Basin. Meanwhile, we deployed the integrated multivariate long and short-term memory network (LSTM) to forecast principal contaminants. Our findings revealed that (1) biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen exhibited high inter-correlations in water quality mapping, with lead and cadmium also demonstrating a strong association; (2) The main point sources of contaminant were coking, metal mining, and smelting industries. The government should strengthen the regulation and control of these industries and prevent further pollution of the river; (3) We confirmed 4 key pollutants: COD, ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Our study accurately predicted the future changes in this water quality index. The best results were obtained when the prediction period was 1 day. The prediction accuracies reached 85.85%, 47.15%, 85.66%, and 89.07%, respectively. In essence, this research developed effective water quality traceability and predictive analysis methods in semi-arid river basins. It provided an effective tool for water quality surveillance in semi-arid river basins and imparts a scientific scaffold for the environmental stewardship endeavors of pertinent authorities.