Forest cover change and its carbon dynamic of the karst area in Bulusaraung, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Information on land forest cover changes and carbon stocks in karst areas is vital for management planning. Therefore, an analysis of the dynamics of land forest cover, carbon stocks of secondary karst forests, and their future projections is necessary. This study aimed to analyze the carbon stocks of secondary forests, forest cover change, and their projections in karst areas. We used 43 sample plots of 20 m x 20 m to measure Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon stocks. Forest cover data were collected using remote sensing and GIS tools. Data analysis of the ABG of the secondary forest for the karst plain and karst tower was conducted using the Chave equation. Land-cover change was analyzed by delineating the 2011, 2016, and 2021 land-cover data from satellite imagery and testing the accuracy using survey data fields and high-resolution images. Land-cover projections for 2026 and 2031 were obtained using Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) analysis. The results revealed ten land cover types in the karst area of the Bulusaraung Forest Management Unit (FMU). Secondary dryland karst forests (tower and plain karst) were the dominant forest types (60%) in the Maros-Pangkep essential karst ecosystem area. Both karst types of secondary forests are relatively high carbon stores. Data projection shows that the mining area will grow extensively by 2031. Secondary dryland karst forests will be degraded by 15.5% in 20 years due to increased mining activities, conversion to paddy fields, dryland agriculture, and mixed dryland agriculture. Karst ecosystems are vital for carbon and water storage. Therefore, some strategies are required for the sustainable management of Maros-Pangkep Karst are as follows: (i) controlling the opening of mining areas according to sustainable environmental principles, (ii) encouraging the implementation of post-mining land rehabilitation, (iii) increasing public awareness of the importance of preserving karst areas, and (iv) implementing soil conservation rules by prioritizing agroforestry systems in dryland farming.