Intraseasonal waning immunity of seasonal influenza vaccine – A systematic review and meta-analysis

Recently, studies have suggested that influenza antibody titers decline with time since vaccination. Duration of vaccine protection is an important factor to determine the optimal timing of vaccination. We aimed to systematically evaluate the implication of waning immunity on the duration of seasonal influenza vaccine antibody response. Electronic databases and clinical trial registries were systematically searched to identify phase III/IV randomized clinical trials evaluating the immunogenicity of seasonal influenza vaccines measured by hemagglutination inhibition assay in healthy individuals six months of age and older. Meta-analyses were conducted to compare adjuvanted and standard influenza vaccine responses with time since vaccination. 1918 articles were identified, of which ten were included in qualitative synthesis and seven in quantitative analysis (children; n=3, older adults; n=4). All studies were deemed to be at low risk of bias, except one study deemed at high risk of bias due to missing outcome data. The majority of included studies found a rise in antibody titers at one-month followed by a decline at six-month post-vaccination. At six-months post-vaccination overall risk differences in seroprotection were significantly higher for children vaccinated with adjuvanted compared to standard vaccines (0.29; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.14–0.44). A small increase in seroprotection levels was observed among older adults vaccinated with an adjuvanted compared to standard vaccines, which remained constant over six-months (pre-vaccination: 0.03; 95 % CI, 0.00–0.09 and one- and six-months post-vaccination: 0.05; 95 % CI, 0.01–0.09). Our results found evidence of persistent antibody responses following influenza vaccination over the course of a typical influenza season. Even if influenza vaccine responses wane over a six-month period, vaccination likely still provides a significant advantage in protection, which may be enhanced with adjuvanted vaccines, particularly in children. Further research is needed to identify the exact timing when the decline in antibody response begins to better inform the optimal timing of influenza vaccination programs. Trial registration: PROSPERO (CRD42019138585).