Development and validation of a radiomics-based nomogram for predicting pathological grade of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

Upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a rare and highly aggressive malignancy characterized by poor prognosis, making the accurate identification of high-grade (HG) UTUC essential for subsequent treatment strategies. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram model using computed tomography urography (CTU) images to predict HG UTUC. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to include patients with UTUC who underwent radical nephroureterectomy and received a CTU examination prior to surgery. In the CTU images, tumor lesions located in the renal calyces, renal pelvis and ureter were segmented, and radiomics features from the unenhanced, medullary, and excretory phases were extracted. The maximum relevance minimum redundancy algorithm, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and various machine learning (ML) algorithms—including random forest, support vector machine, and eXtreme gradient boosting—were employed to select radiomics features and calculate radiomics scores. Logistic regression (LR) analysis was performed to identify the independent influencing factors of clinical baseline characteristics. Multiple datasets of radiomics features were constructed by integrating single-phase radiomics features with the most significant independent factor. Both LR and ML algorithms were utilized to develop predictive models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were assessed for model performance evaluation. Decision curve analysis was conducted to evaluate the clinical net benefits. A total of 167 patients were enrolled in this study. Among them, 56 were diagnosed with low-grade UTUC (including papillary urothelial neoplasms with low malignant potential and low-grade urothelial carcinoma) as confirmed by postoperative pathological examination results, and 111 were of HG. These patients were randomly allocated to the training set and the validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The training set comprised 116 patients with a mean age of 63.5 ± 9.38 years and 38 males. The validation set comprised 51 patients with a mean age of 65.6 ± 11.1 years and 18 males. Hydronephrosis was identified as the most significant independent factor in the clinical baseline features. Models that include mixed-phase development achieve better performance compared to models that rely simply on single-phase development. The nomogram model had excellent predictive ability for HG UTUC, with AUC values of 0.844 and an accuracy of 0.793 in the validation sets. The nomogram model can enhance accuracy by 14.1% (79.3% vs. 65.2%) and sensitivity by 32.8% (93.2% vs. 60.4%) compared to urinary cytology. This study developed a nomogram model, which significantly improved the diagnostic ability for HG UTUC compared to urinary cytology. Furthermore, the results of the decision curve analysis showed that the model had a net benefit and could provide a non-invasive and potentially diagnostic reference tool for HG UTUC.