Clinical and Dosimetric Predictors for Postoperative Cardiopulmonary Complications in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery

BackgroundNeoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored correlations of clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and predicted their risk by establishing a nomogram model. MethodsClinical and DVH parameters of ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment from 2002 to 2020 were collected. Postoperative cardiopulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was applied, and a nomogram model was constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.ResultsOf the 307 ESCC patients enrolled in this study, 65 (21.2%) experienced pulmonary complications and 57 (18.6%) experienced cardiac complications. The following six risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for pulmonary complications by multivariate logistic regression analyses in the integrated model: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27–9.70; P = 0.021), post-radiation therapy (RT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28–0.90; P = 0.023), mean lung dose (MLD) (OR, 1.13; 95% CI 1.01–1.28; P = 0.041), and pre-RT monocyte (OR, 8.36; 95% CI 1.23–11.7; P = 0.03). The AUC of this integrated model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.64–0.77). The paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was the independent predictor of cardiac complication (OR, 2.50; 95% CI 1.22–5.55; P = 0.016).ConclusionsFor ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment, male sex, post-RT FEV1, MLD, and pre-RT monocyte were confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. A nomogram model including six risk factors was further established. The independent predictor of cardiac complication was TP concurrent chemotherapy.