Evaluating the Effectiveness of Systemic Heparin During Arteriovenous Fistula Creation by Emulating a Target Trial

Abstract Most of the 800,000 people living with end-stage kidney disease in the United States rely on a functioning vascular access to provide life-sustaining hemodialysis, yet one-third of arteriovenous fistulas experience early failures. Determining the safety and effectiveness of systemic heparin during fistula creation could improve the quality and quantity of life for these vulnerable patients. In this paper, a pragmatic randomized trial was emulated to assess the effect of systemic heparin administration (vs. none) during radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation on early bleeding and thrombosis using data from two international multicenter randomized trials performed between 2014 and 2019. Marginal risks were estimated using inverse probability weighted parametric survival analysis and confidence intervals were generated with bootstrapping. A total of 914 patients were enrolled and 61% received systemic heparin; median (IQR) age was 58 (49, 67) years and 45% were on hemodialysis at enrollment. No difference in the risk of bleeding events was observed, with a risk difference (95% CI) at 14 days of -0.1% (-1.6, 1.4). The risk of access thrombosis was lower in the heparin group, with a risk of 3.7% (2.6, 4.8) after heparin and 5.3% (3.4, 7.4) without heparin at 14 days (risk ratio 0.72, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98).