Development and validation of a multi-parameter nomogram for venous thromboembolism in gastric cancer patients: a retrospective analysis

列线图 医学 接收机工作特性 内科学 置信区间 逻辑回归 曲线下面积 癌症 静脉血栓栓塞 入射(几何) 回顾性队列研究 外科 血栓形成 光学 物理
作者
Hang Zhou,Haike Lei,Hongpeng Zhao,Kaifeng Huang,Yundong Wang,Ruixia Hong,Jishun Huo,Li Luo,Fang Li
出处
期刊:PeerJ [PeerJ, Inc.]
卷期号:12: e17527-e17527
标识
DOI:10.7717/peerj.17527
摘要

Objective Gastric cancer (GC), one of the highest venous thromboembolism (VTE) incidence rates in cancer, contributes to considerable morbidity, mortality, and, prominently, extra cost. However, up to now, there is not a high-quality VTE model to steadily predict the risk for VTE in China. Consequently, setting up a prediction model to predict the VTE risk is imperative. Methods Data from 3,092 patients from December 15, 2017, to December 31, 2022, were retrospectively analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for GC, and a nomogram was constructed based on screened risk factors. A receiver operating curve (ROC) and calibration plot was created to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram. Results The risk factors of suffering from VTE were older age (OR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00–1.04]), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) ≥ 70 (OR = 0.45, 95% CI [0.25–0.83]), Blood transfusion (OR = 2.37, 95% CI [1.47–3.84]), advanced clinical stage (OR = 3.98, 95% CI [1.59–9.99]), central venous catheterization (CVC) (OR = 4.27, 95% CI [2.03–8.99]), operation (OR = 2.72, 95% CI [1.55–4.77]), fibrinogen degradation product (FDP) >5 µg/mL (OR = 1.92, 95% CI [1.13–3.25]), and D-dimer > 0.5 mg/L (OR = 2.50, 95% CI [1.19–5.28]). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.82 in the training set and 0.85 in the validation set. Conclusion Our prediction model can accurately predict the risk of the appearance of VTE in gastric cancer patients and can be used as a robust and efficient tool for evaluating the possibility of VTE.
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