Early Effects of the End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices Model on Kidney Transplant Waitlist Additions

Background: Despite the mortality benefit of kidney transplantation over dialysis, only 13% of patients with end-stage kidney disease are on the transplant waitlist. Given the low rates of transplant waitlisting in the US, Medicare launched the End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices (ETC) Model in 2021, the largest mandatory trial of payment incentives in kidney disease, which randomized 30% of healthcare markets to financial bonuses/penalties to improve kidney transplantation and home dialysis use. This study examines the effect of ETC payment adjustments on US kidney transplant waitlist additions. Methods: Using data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry, we examined kidney transplant waitlisting trends between 01/01/2017 and 06/30/2022. Participants were divided into intervention and control arms of the ETC Model. Using an interrupted time series design, we compared slope changes in waitlist additions post-ETC Model implementation (implementation date: 01/01/2021) between the two arms, while accounting for differential changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results were stratified by race and ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, and other). To examine balance between the two ETC arms, we conducted supplementary analyses using United States Renal Data System and Medicare data. Results: Following implementation of the ETC Model, there were 5,550 waitlist additions in the intervention and 11,332 additions in the control arm (versus 14,023 and 30,610 additions before the ETC Model). Post-ETC, there were no significant differences in kidney transplant waitlist additions between the two arms for the overall cohort (slope difference 6.9 new listings/month, 95% CI: -7.4 to 21.1) or among either White (slope difference 2.6/month, 95% CI -3.0 to 8.1), Black (slope difference 2.2/month, 95% CI: -4.3 to 8.7), or Hispanic (slope difference 0.2/month, 95% CI: -4.5 to 4.9) patients. Conclusions: In the 18 months following implementation, the ETC Model was not associated with significant changes in new kidney transplant waitlist additions.