Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions

气候变化 国内生产总值 环境科学 人均 温室气体 自然资源经济学 人口 全球变暖 可持续发展 环境保护 地理 生态学 经济 经济增长 环境卫生 医学 生物
作者
Chae Yeon Park,Kiyoshi Takahashi,Fang Li,Jun’ya Takakura,Shinichiro Fujimori,Tomoko Hasegawa,Akihiko Ito,Dong Kun Lee,Wim Thiery
出处
期刊:Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions [Elsevier]
卷期号:80: 102667-102667 被引量:17
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102667
摘要

Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.

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