[Disease burden and economic burden of breast cancer in females in China: a synthesis analysis].

Objective: To understand the current and integrated disease burden and economic burden caused by breast cancer in females in China. Methods: Based on six updated data sources, including the series of Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, China Health Statistical Yearbook, GLOBOCAN, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), the information about incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALY) of breast cancer were extracted for the analysis on the current incidence and time trend of breast cancer and predicted disease burden of breast cancer in females in China. Software Joinpoint was used for time trend analysis. The data of economic burden were systematically updated and analyzed by literature review. Results: 1) GLOBOCAN 2022 estimated that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and one- year prevalence rate of breast cancer in females were 33.0/100 000, 6.1/100 000 and 40.1/100 000, respectively, in China in 2022. According to Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, the ASIR and ASMR were 28.4/100 000 and 5.8/100 000, respectively, in 2018. The China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets showed that the ASMR was 4.5/100 000 in 2021, and the urban to rural area mortality ratio was 1.2∶1. GBD reported that the DALYs of breast cancer were 2.921 million in China in 2021, accounting for 14.4% of the global total. 2) Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report data showed that the ASIR and ASMR of breast cancer decreased by 2.1% and 11.4%, respectively, in China from 2009 to 2018, while increased by 43.9% and 8.2% in rural area, respectively. The Joinpoint analysis showed that the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASIR and ASMR in China were -0.2% (P>0.05) and -1.6% (P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR and ASMR in rural area were 3.9% (P<0.05) and 0.6% (P>0.05), and -0.3% (P>0.05) and -1.2% (P<0.05) in urban area, respectively. China Health Statistical Yearbook data showed that the urban ASMR decreased by 12.3% from 2014 to 2021 with AAPC of -2.6% (P<0.05). 3) The GLOBOCAN 2022 predicted that, the breast cancer case count and death count in China would be 387 776 and 111 133 by 2050, an increase of 8.6% and 48.2%, respectively, compared with 2022, the increases would be more obvious in people over 65 years old, an increase of 80.8% and 124.9%, respectively. 4) Thirteen individual- based studies reported that the median medical expenditure per patient (M=21 000 to 39 000 Yuan) and length of hospital stay (M=11.0 to 30.5 days) for breast cancer treatment decreased from 2010 to 2019, while the average medical expenditure per visit (M=9 000 to 23 000 Yuan) showed an upward trend. There was only one national-level analysis, which showed that the treatment cost of breast cancer was 25.24 billion Yuan in China in 2018, accounting for 6.4% of the total cancer treatment cost. Conclusions: According to the above updated multi-source data, the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China were stable in the past ten years, but the increasing trend in rural area should be noted. The direct medical expenditure of breast cancer treatment per case might decrease, but the population-level economic burden would remain heavy due to population aging.