Spatiotemporal analysis of the food-related carbon emissions of China: Regional heterogeneity and the urban‒rural divide

As the world's largest carbon emitter of food systems, China's goal of carbon neutrality cannot be achieved without addressing the issue of food GHGs. Given the knowledge gap in subnational spatiotemporal research on China's food carbon emissions, especially drivers of regional heterogeneity and the urban‒rural divide, this study uses the household metabolism approach, the gray correlation, and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to assess food-related carbon emissions (FCEs) in China, conducts urban‒rural comparisons and quantifies emission drivers across 31 provinces/regions from 1990 to 2022. The data are sourced from authentic and credible government departments. The results indicate a notable increase in FCEs in most provinces for urban regions following periods of slight decline (1990-2001), sharp increase (2001-2016), and slow growth (2016-2022). In contrast, there has been a more pronounced increase in most provinces for rural regions following a phase of slow growth (1990-2002), a marked decline (2002-2012), and a sharp rise (2012-2022). Among others, per capita carbon emissions from plant-based foods decreased from 345.79 kg in 1990 to 262.70 kg in 2022, whereas emissions from animal-based foods increased from 90.78 kg to 284.39 kg over the same period, suggesting that dietary changes have been a major contributor. Clustering based on the gray correlation further confirms the large interprovincial heterogeneity and significant urban‒rural divide. Regardless of cluster and stage, affluence consistently and significantly drives the growth of FCEs in urban/rural areas, whereas food consumption intensity consistently and significantly contributes to this reduction. The Engel coefficient reduces carbon emissions by a large amount, and the carbon emission factor increases urban/rural FCEs, albeit by a small amount. Consumption willingness reduces FCEs in urban areas but increases FCEs in rural areas in most stages. These findings can aid policy-makers in designing emission reduction policies tailored to the local context.