Disentangling reciprocal relationships between R&D intensity, profitability and capital market performance: A panel VAR analysis

Research and development (R&D) investments are strategic choices that firms make to create and sustain competitive advantage. Extant literature proposes that firms' R&D investments and their profitability and capital market performance are reciprocally related. However, the direction of these relationships and their temporal nature are unclear. We take a real options perspective to argue that the long-run firm performance effects of R&D investments are better than their short-term ones, and that the initial level of R&D intensity influences the nature of these relationships. We apply panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) to a sample of 6623 U.S. firms over the 1990–2020 period in order to test our hypotheses. Our results indicate that increases in R&D intensity have negative effects on profitability in the short term, yet these effects diminish relatively quickly. The effects of increases in R&D intensity on capital market performance are positive and persist over time. Consistent with our predictions, they are contingent on the initial levels of R&D intensity and performance. The findings are fundamentally in line with the real options perspective employed here, yet they add important nuance to our understanding of when, how, and under which conditions R&D investments and firm performance affect one another.