Pathways towards carbon reduction through technology transition in liner shipping

In order to achieve IMO’s carbon reduction targets in maritime transportation, it has become imperative for ship operators to make well-funded business decisions regarding ship technology and fuel selection. This paper proposes a decision-making model for the decarbonization of liner shipping from 2022 to 2050. The model integrates decisions about ship purchases and sales, together with retrofitting of ships, fleet deployment, speed optimization, and shore power utilization. All these decisions will heavily depend on the technology transitions of alternative fuels. According to the established framework, we derive a road map of technology transition, which put forward time-related response measures for ship operators in both short-sea and deep-sea shipping. Furthermore, we assess the impacts of different carbon reduction targets on technology transition. The results indicate that LNG will still play a leading role in the short term, however ammonia and hydrogen will serve as important transitional fuels in the medium and long term. Retrofitting will be the primary way for technology transition, while slow steaming and shore power utilization will also be important measures to reduce the carbon emissions of shipping.