Simulation-based rescue plan modeling and performance assessment towards resilient metro systems under emergency

This paper proposes an intelligent fire emergency rescue analysis model in which the Hierarchical Timed Colored Petri nets (HTCPN) are incorporated to realize process control and coordination. Two indicators of places and transitions are employed to identify the key parts of HTCPN. A diagnostic analysis of group allocation is developed to determine the most appropriate way to deploy firefighters. A sensitivity analysis based on SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is conducted to identify the relevant importance of key factors on the performance of emergency. The proposed approach is applied at a Wuhan metro station. Results indicate that: (1) The firefighting and rescue part is of uppermost priority for emergency rescue time controlling; (2) Among all 19 influential factors, six key factors are tested as exerting more significant impacts on the performance of emergency; (3) The proposed model could significantly improve the efficiency of the emergency response, reducing the overall response time by 14.3%. The novelty of this research lies in the developed digital emergency rescue model, which is capable of taking uncertainties underlying complex coordination among various departments into account. The model has the potential to provide basic technology to support decision-making and help develop a human-centered emergency rescue system.