Global and regional burden of cardiovascular diseases due to non-optimal temperature exposure: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading contributors to global morbidity and mortality, significantly influenced by non-optimal temperatures. This study projects the impact of temperature fluctuations on CVD through 2050, considering environmental and climate changes. Methods Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data, we analysed age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASR DALYs) related to non-optimal temperatures. We applied Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) for trend analysis and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting CVD mortality and DALYs from 2022 to 2050. Results EAPC analysis revealed a decline in CVD mortality rates, with a decrease of -0.32% for males (95% CI: -0.39% to -0.24%) and -0.42% for females (95% CI: -0.48% to -0.36%), indicating reduced mortality from non-optimal temperatures. Regions with higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) showed more significant declines. ARIMA forecasts predict a substantial increase in CVD burden with deaths projected to rise from 1.2 million in 2022 to 1.9 million by 2050, and DALYs expected to increase from 2.4 million to over 3 million during the same period. Conclusion The projected rise in CVD due to temperature variability highlights the need for robust health systems integrated with climate action to mitigate risks. This research underscores the importance of advancing SDG 3.4 to reduce non-communicable disease mortality and emphasizes climate considerations in health planning per SDG 13.