MRI-based prediction of microvascular invasion/high tumor grade and adjuvant therapy benefit for solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm: a multicenter cohort study

Abstract Objectives To develop and externally validate an MRI-based diagnostic model for microvascular invasion (MVI) or Edmondson-Steiner G3/4 (i.e., high-risk histopathology) in solitary BCLC 0/A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤ 5 cm and to assess its performance in predicting adjuvant therapy benefits. Materials and methods This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 577 consecutive adult patients who underwent contrast-enhanced MRI and subsequent curative resection or ablation for solitary BCLC 0/A HCC ≤ 5 cm (December 2011 to January 2024) from four hospitals. For resection-treated patients, a diagnostic model integrating clinical and 50 semantic MRI features was developed against pathology with logistic regression analyses on the training set (center 1) and externally validated on the testing dataset (centers 2–4), with its utilities in predicting posttreatment recurrence-free survival (RFS) and adjuvant therapy benefit evaluated by Cox regression analyses. Results Serum α-fetoprotein > 100 ng/mL (odds ratio (OR), 1.94; p = 0.006), non-simple nodular growth subtype (OR, 1.69; p = 0.03), and the VICT2 trait (OR, 4.49; p < 0.001) were included in the MVI or high-grade (MHG) trait, with testing set AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.832, 74.0%, and 82.5%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox analysis, the MHG-positive status was associated with worse RFS (resection testing set HR, 3.55, p = 0.02; ablation HR, 3.45, p < 0.001), and adjuvant therapy was associated with improved RFS only for the MHG-positive patients (resection HR, 0.39, p < 0.001; ablation HR, 0.30, p = 0.005). Conclusion The MHG trait effectively predicted high-risk histopathology, RFS and adjuvant therapy benefit among patients receiving curative resection or ablation for solitary BCLC 0/A HCC ≤ 5 cm. Key Points Question Despite being associated with increased recurrence and potential benefit from adjuvancy in HCC, microvascular invasion or Edmondson-Steiner grade 3/4 are hardly assessable noninvasively. Findings We developed and externally validated an MRI-based model for predicting high-risk histopathology, post-resection/ablation recurrence-free survival, and adjuvant therapy benefit in solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm. Clinical relevance Among patients receiving curative-intent resection or ablation for solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm, noninvasive identification of high-risk histopathology (MVI or high-grade) using our proposed MRI model may help improve individualized prognostication and patient selection for adjuvant therapies.