Combined IXGBoost-KELM short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on multidimensional similar day clustering and dual decomposition

Accurate photovoltaic power prediction is important to ensure stable and safe operation of microgrids. However, due to the high volatility of photovoltaic power data, the prediction accuracy of traditional prediction models is often unsatisfactory. To ensure stable operation of microgrids, this study proposes a combined improved extreme gradient boosting-kernel extreme learning machine short-term photovoltaic power prediction model consisting of multidimensional similar day clustering and dual decomposition. Initially, gray relation analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, and Kmeans++ are used for clustering to obtain high-precision similar days. Subsequently, a dual signal decomposition model based on variational modal decomposition and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise is proposed. Finally, predictions are made using a combination of predictive models with complementary strengths and weaknesses, and the prediction results of each component are fitted with under three weather conditions, the average root mean square error is reduced by 78.02%,62.99%, and 62.48%, and the average mean absolute error is reduced by 82.55%, 71.13%, and 67.07% in comparison with the baseline model. The results show that the model is effective in improving the prediction accuracy in a variety of different environments.