Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

氟氯化碳 环境科学 大气科学 臭氧层 中国 气候学 臭氧 蒙特利尔议定书 化学输运模型 东亚 减速 臭氧消耗 气象学 地理 地质学 考古 法学 政治学
作者
Matthew Rigby,Sunyoung Park,Takuya Saito,Luke M. Western,Alison L. Redington,Xuekun Fang,Stephan Henne,Alistair J. Manning,Ronald G. Prinn,G. S. Dutton,Paul J. Fraser,Anita L. Ganesan,B. D. Hall,Christina M. Harth,Jooil Kim,K.-R. Kim,Paul B. Krummel,T. Lee,S. Li,Qing Liang,Mark F. Lunt,S. A. Montzka,Jens Mühle,Simon O’Doherty,M.-K. Park,Stefan Reimann,Peter K. Salameh,Peter Simmonds,Rachel Tunnicliffe,Ray F. Weiss,Yoko Yokouchi,Dickon Young
出处
期刊:Nature [Nature Portfolio]
卷期号:569 (7757): 546-550 被引量:192
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4
摘要

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons1. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s2. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown3. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014–2017 than in 2008–2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010. Emissions from eastern China account for approximately 40 to 60 per cent of the global rise in emissions of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), which may be a result of new production and use.
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