Complex Network Dynamics Model-Based Financial Risk Assessment Method for Supply Chains Systems

As a critical financing method, supply chain finance (SCF) plays a vital role in addressing the financing challenges faced by small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and in promoting collaborative development within supply chains. However, SCF systems inevitably encounter complex risks of default contagion. Effectively detecting and assessing these risks, along with formulating reasonable financing strategies, are issues of common concern to both the academic and business communities. This study utilizes complex network theory to investigate the guaranteed warehouse financing model in supply chain finance. First, a complex network model of supply chain finance is constructed to analyze the transmission mechanisms of default contagion risk. This model effectively measures the ways and mechanisms of risk propagation. Second, a default probability model is developed to assess the risk magnitude for enterprises following default contagion. This model facilitates risk assessment and control, providing a scientific basis for financing decisions. Third, by constructing an SCF financing model, this study examines the financing decision-making behaviors of banks, manufacturers and retailers under various conditions. It reveals the interactions and interest trade-offs among participants in the guaranteed warehouse financing model. Finally, through simulation analysis, the study investigates the impact of different parameters on supply chain finance strategies. The results offer quantitative guidance for banks in setting loan quotas and provide a theoretical foundation for enterprises to formulate reasonable financing strategies in the guaranteed warehouse financing model.