An investigation of the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis

Abstract To explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Yingjisha County, Kashgar Region, Xinjiang, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of TB. The Spearman correlation analysis and distribution lag nonlinear model analysis were conducted on the number of daily reported cases of TB from 2016 to 2023 to study the association effect of various meteorological factors and the daily incidence number of TB in Yingjisha County. A total of 13,288 TB cases were reported from January 2016 to June 2023, and June to October is the peak period of annual TB incidence. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that average daily temperature (AT) and average daily wind speed (WS) were positively correlated with TB incidence (r AT = 0.110, r WS = 0.090); and average daily relative humidity (RH) and TB incidence was negatively correlated (r RH = − 0.093). When AT was − 15 °C, the RR reached a maximum of 2.20 (95% CI: 0.77–6.29) at a lag of 21 days. When RH was 92%, the RR reached a maximum of 1.05 (95% CI: 0.92–1.19) at a lag of 6 days. When WS was 5.2 m/s, the RR reached a maximum of 1.30 (95% CI: 0.78–2.16) at a lag of 16 days. There is a non-linearity and a certain lag between meteorological factors and the occurrence and prevalence of TB in the population, which is mainly manifested in the fact that the risk of incidence of TB decreases with the increase of the daily AT, has a hazardous effect within a certain range of humidity as the average daily RH rises, and gradually increases with the increase of the average daily WS. Local residents are advised to pay attention to climate change so as to take appropriate preventive measures, especially women and middle and old age group should pay close attention to climate change and add more clothes in time, minimise travelling in hazy weather and windy and sandy weather, maintain good nutrition, adequate sleep and moderate exercise in daily life to enhance their immunity, wash hands frequently and ventilate the air, and try to avoid staying in humid and confined spaces in order to reduce the risk of latent TB patients developing the disease.