Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Mortality in COPD

Rationale: BMI is associated with COPD mortality, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. The effect of genetic variants aggregated into a polygenic score may elucidate causal mechanisms and predict risk. Objectives: To examine the associations of genetically predicted BMI with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in COPD. Methods: We developed a polygenic score for BMI (PGSBMI) and tested for associations of the PGSBMI with all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality in participants with COPD from the COPDGene, ECLIPSE, and Framingham Heart studies. We calculated the difference between measured BMI and PGS-predicted BMI (BMIdiff) and categorized participants into groups of discordantly low (BMIdiff < 20th percentile), concordant (BMIdiff between 20th – 80th percentile), and discordantly high (BMIdiff > 80th percentile) BMI. We applied Cox models, examined potential non-linear associations of the PGSBMI and BMIdiff with mortality, and summarized results with meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results: We observed significant non-linear associations of measured BMI and BMIdiff, but not PGSBMI, with all-cause mortality. In meta-analyses, a one standard deviation increase in the PGSBMI was associated with an increased hazard for cardiovascular mortality (HR=1.29, 95% CI=1.12-1.49), but not with respiratory or all-cause mortality. Compared to participants with concordant measured and genetically predicted BMI, those with discordantly low BMI had higher mortality risk for all-cause (HR=1.57, CI=1.41-1.74) and respiratory death (HR=2.01, CI=1.61-2.51). Conclusions: In people with COPD, higher genetically predicted BMI is associated with higher cardiovascular mortality but not respiratory mortality. Individuals with discordantly low BMI have higher all-cause and respiratory mortality compared to those with concordant BMI.