Can Chinese cities reach their carbon peaks on time? Scenario analysis based on machine learning and LMDI decomposition

• Estimated relationship between nighttime stable light data and carbon emissions . • Reference to shared social economy and representative concentration to set scenarios. • Classification of cities based on industry output and GDP. • The carbon emission pathway of the city from 2021 to 2060 was dynamically simulated. • Service cities are more likely to have autonomous carbon peaks. As cities are critical actors in mitigating climate change and achieving the “3060″ target, multi-scenario studies on urban carbon emissions can provide a scientific basis for formulating urban carbon peaking action plans. To remedy the problems of missing regional statistics, inconsistent caliber, and lack of city-scale studies in carbon emission research, this paper uses the sparrow optimization neural network algorithm to fit carbon emission data with nighttime stable light for training. Carbon emission data were obtained for 281 cities in China during 2000–2020. The rates of change of influencing factors are set based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for different periods and different scenarios. The carbon emission and carbon peaking evolution paths of service, industrial and comprehensive cities from 2021 to 2060 are dynamically simulated. The results show that (1) service cities are significantly higher than industrial and comprehensive cities in population, GDP, secondary industry output, and energy consumption. (2) The economic development effect, as the primary driver of carbon emission growth, increases and then decreases in all five categories of cities, with 2010 as the inflection point. Industrial structure improvement has an increasingly strong offsetting effect on carbon emissions and is one of the critical directions for future carbon emission reduction. (3) Service cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are already at the completion stage of urban transformation and are more likely to reach the carbon peak on their own than other types of cities. In the low carbon following scenario, comprehensive cities such as Kaifeng, Rizhao, and Jilin can achieve their carbon peaking targets efficiently. The findings of this paper can provide valid theoretical support for carbon peaking action programs in China and other countries.