Assessment of decarbonization possibilities in Lithuania’s chemical industry

ABSTRACTABSTRACTThe main objectives of this paper are to present the developed model and to explore and discuss the decarbonization possibilities of the Lithuanian chemical industry. The sector has high energy consumption and struggles to achieve emission reductions. The developed model is based on a bottom-up modeling approach representing the industry’s current and emerging technology mix. We conclude that the deep decarbonization of Lithuania’s chemical industry is technically feasible under certain conditions. The deployment of carbon capture technology is necessary to decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 40% in 2030. To achieve deep decarbonization of the sector, green hydrogen as feedstock for ammonia production should be utilized before 2050. Decarbonization scenarios cause an increase of undiscounted costs by more than 618–3132 million Euros depending on CO2 reduction targets when cumulated over the 2018–2050 period. The ammonia production facility should cover a substantial share of these costs until 2030, which could negatively affect its competitiveness.KEYWORDS: Ammonia productionbottom-up modelchemical industrydecarbonizationemissions Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Abbreviations BAUBusiness-as-usualCCSCarbon capture and storageCO2Carbon dioxideETSEmissions trading systemEUEuropean UnionEUREuroGHGgreenhouse gasH2HydrogenIEAInternational Energy AgencyISEEMIndustrial Sector Energy Efficiency ModelingIPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIRENAInternational Renewable Energy AgencyJRCJoint Research CentrektkilotonLEAPLow Emissions Analysis PlatformLEDlight-emitting diodeMESSAGEModel for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental ImpactM EURMillion EuroNECPNational Energy and Climate Action PlanNH3AmmoniaTIMESThe Integrated MARKAL-EFOM SystemTJTera jouleUKUnited KingdomUSUnited StatesVATValue Added TaxAdditional informationFundingThe work was supported by the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) [S-MIP-19-36]