A simple-to-use tool for predicting response to peginterferon in HBV DNA suppressed chronic hepatitis B patients in China

Rational administration of peginterferon can remarkably reduce serum HBsAg level and improve the rate of HBsAg loss. Considering the high cost and adverse drug reaction of peginterferon, we aimed to develop a simple-to-use scoring system at early stage of treatment to predict low HBsAg level or HBsAg clearance at the end of treatment in virological suppression chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.Non-cirrhotic CHB patients with NA (nucleoside/nucleotide analogues)-induced virological suppression initiated either by add-on or switch-to peginterferon for ≥ 48 weeks were enrolled from January 2012 to June 2017 in these two tertiary centers. The retrospective experiment identified 320 suitable patients, including 192 in training and 128 in validation cohorts.Using logistic regression, a simple-to-use scoring system integrating baseline HBsAg level <1000 IU/mL, HBsAg decline >0.5 log at week 12 and ALT flare at week 12 was developed in the training cohort and good for predicting HBsAg <100 IU/mL, HBsAg <10 IU/mL and HBsAg loss at the end of 48-week treatment. The area under receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.84, 0.86 or 0.78 in the training cohort and 0.88, 0.79 or 0.81 in the validation cohort, respectively.Our simple-to-use scoring system may guide for clinicians to decide whether to continue peginterferon in CHB patients to achieve low HBsAg levels or HBsAg clearance at the end of treatment, which might lead more cost-effective decision and get more patients to reach functional cures in Chinese population.