Abstract This paper presents a simplified excavation chamber pressure model for earth pressure balance shield tunnel boring machine (EPBM) tunneling in granular soils, capable of predicting chamber pressure response during both excavation and standstill periods. Two physical processes, (1) compressible material flow, and (2) chamber fluid seepage, are modeled. The chamber pressure model is physics-based and is built upon chamber muck mass conservation. The model assumes muck behavior to be pressure-dependent and quasi-static. Given recorded EPBM operations, including advance rate, chamber additive injection rates and screw conveyor rotation speed, the model can predict the chamber pressure fluctuation with good accuracy, both during excavation and standstill periods. A case study using tunneling project data is included, where the model’s capability to simulate chamber pressure evolution during excavation of a single ring and multiple consecutive rings is demonstrated.