Reduced Exhaled Breath Condensate pH and Severity of Allergic Sensitization Predict School Age Asthma

Background We previously reported that deaerated breath condensate pH (dEBC pH) can identify preschool children with recurrent wheezing at high asthma risk. Objective To assess the ability of preschool dEBC pH to predict asthma risk at school age. Methods Children of the baseline cohort were recontacted for follow-up. Asthma diagnosis at school age was evaluated according to Global Initiative for Asthma recommendations in 135 children who at baseline had been classified into the following groups: (asymptomatic) atopic wheezers (n = 30), (asymptomatic) nonatopic wheezers (n = 57), allergic rhinitis only (n = 14), and healthy controls (n = 34). Results All (100%) former atopic wheezers, 12 (21%) of nonatopic wheezers, 2 (14%) of allergic rhinitis group, and 1 (3%) of healthy controls had developed asthma at follow-up. Among all children with baseline wheezing, baseline dEBC pH predicted asthma at follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72 (sensitivity, 0.67; specificity, 0.76; at pH 7.83). Combining pH and Capacity class (CAP) led to substantial gain in sensitivity (0.96) and negative predictive value (NPV, 0.94). Additional clinical information (Asthma Predictive Index, family atopy, family asthma, and inhaled corticosteroids) further increased the potential to predict asthma (AUC, 0.94) and raised sensitivity (0.98) and NPV (0.97) to nearly perfect values. Conclusion Our findings suggest (1) that dEBC pH combined with CAP class may serve as highly sensitive, noninvasive marker for the early detection of young asymptomatic preschool children with increased asthma risk, and (2) the need for additional biomarkers with high specificity to optimize early risk stratification in this clinically challenging scenario. We previously reported that deaerated breath condensate pH (dEBC pH) can identify preschool children with recurrent wheezing at high asthma risk. To assess the ability of preschool dEBC pH to predict asthma risk at school age. Children of the baseline cohort were recontacted for follow-up. Asthma diagnosis at school age was evaluated according to Global Initiative for Asthma recommendations in 135 children who at baseline had been classified into the following groups: (asymptomatic) atopic wheezers (n = 30), (asymptomatic) nonatopic wheezers (n = 57), allergic rhinitis only (n = 14), and healthy controls (n = 34). All (100%) former atopic wheezers, 12 (21%) of nonatopic wheezers, 2 (14%) of allergic rhinitis group, and 1 (3%) of healthy controls had developed asthma at follow-up. Among all children with baseline wheezing, baseline dEBC pH predicted asthma at follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72 (sensitivity, 0.67; specificity, 0.76; at pH 7.83). Combining pH and Capacity class (CAP) led to substantial gain in sensitivity (0.96) and negative predictive value (NPV, 0.94). Additional clinical information (Asthma Predictive Index, family atopy, family asthma, and inhaled corticosteroids) further increased the potential to predict asthma (AUC, 0.94) and raised sensitivity (0.98) and NPV (0.97) to nearly perfect values. Our findings suggest (1) that dEBC pH combined with CAP class may serve as highly sensitive, noninvasive marker for the early detection of young asymptomatic preschool children with increased asthma risk, and (2) the need for additional biomarkers with high specificity to optimize early risk stratification in this clinically challenging scenario.