Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of northern midlatitude cold regions

融雪 气候变化 融水 环境科学 水流 永久冻土 气候学 水文学(农业) 北半球 人口 全球变暖 流域 自然地理学 地质学 冰川 地理 地貌学 社会学 人口学 岩土工程 海洋学 地图学
作者
Okan Aygün,Christophe Kinnard,Stéphane Campeau
出处
期刊:Progress in Physical Geography [SAGE]
卷期号:44 (3): 338-375 被引量:62
标识
DOI:10.1177/0309133319878123
摘要

Cold region hydrology is conditioned by distinct cryospheric and hydrological processes. While snowmelt is the main contributor to both surface and subsurface flows, seasonally frozen soil also influences the partition of meltwater and rain between these flows. Cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have been shown to be sensitive to climate change. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this region is therefore crucial, as it supports a significant amount of population relying on hydrological services and subjected to changing hydrological risks. We present an exhaustive review of the literature on historical and projected future changes on cold region hydrology in response to climate change. Changes in snow, soil, and streamflow key metrics were investigated and summarized at the hemispheric scale, down to the basin scale. We found substantial evidence of both historical and projected changes in the reviewed hydrological metrics. These metrics were shown to display different sensitivities to climate change, depending on the cold season temperature regime of a given region. Given the historical and projected future warming during the 21st century, the most drastic changes were found to be occurring over regions with near-freezing air temperatures. Colder regions, on the other hand, were found to be comparatively less sensitive to climate change. The complex interactions between the snow and soil metrics resulted in either colder or warmer soils, which led to increasing or decreasing frost depths, influencing the partitioning rates between the surface and subsurface flows. The most consistent and salient hydrological responses to both historical and projected climate change were an earlier occurrence of snowmelt floods, an overall increase in water availability and streamflow during winter, and a decrease in water availability and streamflow during the warm season, which calls for renewed assessments of existing water supply and flood risk management strategies.
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