Cerebello-Thalamo-Cortical Hyperconnectivity Classifies Patients and Predicts Long-Term Treatment Outcome in First-Episode Schizophrenia

Abstract It has previously been shown that cerebello-thalamo-cortical (CTC) hyperconnectivity is likely a state-independent neural signature for psychosis. However, the potential clinical utility of this change has not yet been evaluated. Here, using fMRI and clinical data acquired from 214 untreated first-episode patients with schizophrenia (62 of whom were clinically followed-up at least once at the 12th and 24th months after treatment initiation) and 179 healthy controls, we investigated whether CTC hyperconnectivity would serve as an individualized biomarker for diagnostic classification and prediction of long-term treatment outcome. Cross-validated LASSO regression was conducted to estimate the accuracy of baseline CTC connectivity for patient-control classification, with the generalizability of classification performance tested in an independent sample including 42 untreated first-episode patients and 65 controls. Associations between baseline CTC connectivity and clinical outcomes were evaluated using linear mixed model and leave-one-out cross validation. We found significantly increased baseline CTC connectivity in patients (P = .01), which remained stable after treatment. Measures of CTC connectivity discriminated patients from controls with moderate classification accuracy (AUC = 0.68, P < .001), and the classification model had good generalizability in the independent sample (AUC = 0.70, P < .001). Higher CTC connectivity at baseline significantly predicted poorer long-term symptom reduction in negative symptoms (R = 0.31, P = .01) but not positive or general symptoms. These findings provide initial evidence for the putative “CTC hyperconnectivity” anomaly as an individualized diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for schizophrenia, and highlight the potential of this measure in precision psychiatry.