Modeling and analysis of rumor propagation in social networks

Abstract Rumors affect a variety of human affairs, which may cause a serious social disorder. In order to accurately simulate the propagation dynamics of rumors in real social networks and effectively ameliorate the harm of rumors to society, a new rumor propagation model is proposed in this paper. The model considers the influence of discussants, and divides the total population into four groups: ignorances, discussants, spreaders, and removers. The equilibria and basic reproduction number of the model are calculated, and the local and global asymptotic stability and the transcritical bifurcation of the equilibria are analyzed and proved. The theoretical analysis reveals the dynamic behavior and mechanism of rumor propagation. The parameters of the model are estimated by least-squares fitting, and the rumor spreading process is predicted according to the fitted parameters. The model is verified by using a rumor actual dataset. Simulation results show that the R-squared is 0.9544, which means that the proposed model can accurately simulate the rumor propagation in real social networks. By comparing the proposed model and the existing ones, the outcome indicates that discussants have an important impact on the rumor propagation process.