Monitoring and evaluation of vegetation restoration in the Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve under lockdown protection

For a long time, human activities have been prohibited in ecologically protected areas in the Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve (ELWNNR). The implementation of total closure is one of the main methods for ecological protection. For arid zones, there is a lack of in-depth research on whether this measure contributes to ecological restoration in the reserve. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is considered to be the best indicator for ecological monitoring and has a key role to play in assessing the ecological impacts of total closure. In this study, we used Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data to select optimal data and utilized Sen slope estimation, Mann-Kendall statistical tests, and the geographical detector model to quantitatively analyze the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dynamics and its driving factors. Results were as follows: (1) The vegetation distribution of the Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve (ELWNNR) had obvious spatial heterogeneity, showing low distribution in the middle and high distribution in the surroundings. The correlation coefficients of Landsat-8 and MODIS, Sentinel-2 and MODIS, and Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 were 0.952, 0.842, and 0.861, respectively. The NDVI calculated from MODIS remote sensing data was higher than the value calculated by Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 remote sensing images, and Landsat-8 remote sensing data were the most suitable data. (2) NDVI indicated more degraded areas on the whole, but the ecological recovery was obvious in the localized areas where anthropogenic closure was implemented. The ecological environment change was the result of the joint action of man and nature. Man-made intervention will change the local ecological environment, but the overall ecological environment change was still dominated by natural environmental factors. (3) Factors affecting the distribution of NDVI in descending order were as follows: precipitation > evapotranspiration > land use type > elevation > vegetation type > soil type > soil erosion > slope > temperature > slope direction. Precipitation was the main driver of vegetation change in ELWNNR. The synergistic effect of the factors showed two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement, and the combined effect of the driving factors would increase the influence on NDVI.