Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent-development paths and topic modeling

Understanding current technological changes is the basis for better forecasting of technological changes. Because technology is path dependent, monitoring past and current trends of technological development helps managers and decision makers to identify probable future technologies in order to prevent organizational failure. This study suggests a method based on patent-development paths, k-core analysis and topic modeling of past and current trends of technological development to identify technologies that have the potential to become disruptive technologies. We find that within the photovoltaic industry, thin-film technology is likely to replace the dominant technology, namely crystalline silicon. In addition, we identity the hidden technologies, namely multi-junction, dye-sensitized and concentration technologies, that have the potential to become disruptive technologies within the three main technologies of the photovoltaic industry.