Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO2 emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO2 peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers. Building energy efficiency can be important for CO2 emissions reduction, especially in rapidly developing nations such as China, where extensive new construction is expected to take place over the coming decades. Researchers show potential for high emissions reduction in buildings in China up to 2050 using a detailed scenario modelling exercise.