Modeling the effects of fishery management and marine protected areas on the Beibu Gulf using spatial ecosystem simulation

The Gulf of Beibu, recognized as one of the traditional fishing grounds, is a center of rich biodiversity in the northern South China Sea. Based on the Beibu Gulf ecosystem constructed by the Ecopath and Ecosim model (in the late 1990s), we used Ecospace to evaluate the existing fishery management system and assess the potential of marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Beibu Gulf over a short (5-year), medium (10-year), and long-term (20-year) scenario. The results suggest that the current trawl closure and the midsummer moratorium system used in the Gulf fishery management approach appear to offer minimal benefits for stock recovery because of the high implementation and administrative costs; also, the biomass of valuable groups would decrease drastically with simulation time, and the large predator groups, such as the large demersal and pelagic fishes, would even be reduced to depletion in the long-term (20-year) simulation. Simulations of MPAs indicate that outcomes beneficial to all are possible but not guaranteed. Both ‘no-take’ MPAs, inshore closures (<30-m isobath) and offshore closures (common fishing zone) can drastically reduce fishing effort (between 20% and 30% reduction from 1999 levels), achieving much to avert the collapse of the fishery sector, especially for large-sized, high-value species. The magnitude of the biomass and the catches would obviously increase with simulation time. In a 20-year simulation, the total catches of all fishing gears would be doubled in the inshore closure simulation compared with that of offshore closure simulation with biomass recovery. The results suggest that, for purposes of fishery management in the Gulf, the inshore area within the 30-m isobath should be considered as ‘no-take’ MPAs; this may be an effective management tactic to conserve the ecosystem and to stop the decline in fisheries resources. Considering the complexity of ecosystem-based fishery management, an extension of the current work will incorporate the costs associated with restoration and monitoring efforts as well.