Predicting Collapse in Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head Using a New Method: Preserved Angles of Anterior and Lateral Femoral Head

Femoral head collapse (FHC) is associated with a poor prognosis in osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). Preserved angles (PAs), including the lateral preserved angle (LPA), the anterior preserved angle (APA) and the combined preserved angle (CPA), can be used to quantify the extent of femoral head necrosis and predict the risk of femoral head collapse. The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to assess the efficacy of these preserved angles in the prediction of femoral head collapse using plain radiographs.Patients with ONFH treated conservatively between January 2010 and January 2019 were analyzed retrospectively to assess the risk of FHC. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the independent prognostic factors associated with FHC, including age, sex, etiology, onset of symptom, The Japanese Investigation Committee classification, and PAs (LPA, APA, and CPA).A total of 137 patients, with 180 hips, had follow-up of at least two years and were included. During the follow-up period, FHC occurred in 89 hips (49.44%) after the initial diagnosis. Multivariable analysis indicated that CPA (odds ratio [OR] = 0.95; 95%CI = 0.93-0.97; P < 0.01) was a stronger predictor of femoral head collapse compared with the Japanese Investigation Committee classification (OR = 2.40, 95%CI = 0.92-6.25; P > 0.01). The receiver operating characteristic and survival curve analyses revealed that the predictive cutoff point for the CPA was 118.7° (sensitivity = 96.70%, specificity = 79.78%, log-rank test: P < 0.01).Assessment of preserved angles on plain radiographs is a simple method to quantify the extent of lateral and anterior necrosis of the femoral head. Specifically, CPA has a potential value in predicting femoral head collapse.