A prognostic model for thermal ablation of benign thyroid nodules based on interpretable machine learning

Introduction The detection rate of benign thyroid nodules is increasing every year, with some affected patients experiencing symptoms. Ultrasound-guided thermal ablation can reduce the volume of nodules to alleviate symptoms. As the degree and speed of lesion absorption vary greatly between individuals, an effective model to predict curative effect after ablation is lacking. This study aims to predict the efficacy of ultrasound-guided thermal ablation for benign thyroid nodules using machine learning and explain the characteristics affecting the nodule volume reduction ratio (VRR). Design Prospective study Patients The clinical and ultrasonic characteristics of patients who underwent ultrasound-guided thermal ablation of benign thyroid nodules at our hospital between January 2020 and January 2023 were recorded. Measurements Six machine learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], and Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGBM]) were constructed to predict efficacy; the effectiveness of each model was evaluated, and the optimal model selected. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to visualize the decision process of the optimal model and analyze the characteristics affecting the VRR. Results In total, 518 benign thyroid nodules were included: 356 in the satisfactory group (VRR ≥70% 1 year after operation) and 162 in the unsatisfactory group. The optimal XGBoost model predicted satisfactory efficacy with 78.9% accuracy, 88.8% precision, 79.8% recall rate, an F1 value of 0.84 F1, and an area under the curve of 0.86. The top five characteristics that affected VRRs were the proportion of solid components < 20%, initial nodule volume, blood flow score, peripheral blood flow pattern, and proportion of solid components 50–80%. Conclusions The models, based on interpretable machine learning, predicted the VRR after thermal ablation for benign thyroid nodules, which provided a reference for preoperative treatment decisions.