Contributions of meteorology and nutrient to the surface cyanobacterial blooms at different timescales in the shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu

Quantitative assessments of the contributions of various environmental factors to cyanobacterial blooms at different timescales are lacking. Here, the hourly cyanobacterial bloom intensity (CBI) index, a proxy for the intensity of surface cyanobacterial biomass, was obtained from the geostationary satellite sensor Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) over the years 2011–2018. Generalized additive model was applied to determine the responses of monthly and hourly CBI to the perturbations of meteorological factors, water stability and nutrients, with variation partitioning analysis used to analyze the relative importance of the three groups of variables to the inter-monthly variation of diurnal CBI in each season. The effects of environmental factors on surface cyanobacterial blooms varied at different timescales. Hourly CBI increased with increasing air temperature up to 18 °C but decreased sharply above 18 °C, whereas monthly CBI increased with increasing air temperature up to 30 °C and stabilized thereafter. Among all the environmental factors, air temperature had the largest contribution to the intra-daily variation in CBI; water stability had the highest explanation rate for the inter-monthly variation of diurnal CBI during summer (42.3 %) and autumn (56.9 %); total phosphorus explained the most variation in monthly CBI (18.5 %). Compared with cyanobacterial biomass (CB) in the water column, high light and low wind speed caused significantly lower CBI in July and higher CBI in November respectively. Interestingly, cyanobacterial blooms at the hourly scale were aggravated by climate warming during winter and spring but inhibited during summer and autumn. Collectively, this study reveals the effects of environmental factors on surface cyanobacterial blooms at different timescales and suggests the consideration of the hourly effect of air temperature in short-term predictions of cyanobacterial blooms.