Analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution of Green and low carbon utilization efficiency of agricultural land in China and its influencing factors under the goal of carbon neutralization

Agricultural land is the most basic input factor for agricultural production and an essential component of terrestrial ecosystems, which plays a vital role in achieving carbon neutrality. Giving full play to the carbon-neutral contribution of agricultural land is a crucial part of China's economic transformation and green development. It incorporates carbon and pollution emissions from agricultural land use into the unexpected outputs of the Green and Low-carbon Utilization Efficiency of Agricultural Land (GLUEAL) evaluation system. The study utilized several advanced analytical tools, including the super-efficient Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, Exploratory Spatial-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) method, Geodetector, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. The objective was to examine the spatial-temporal evolution of GLUEAL and identify the factors that influenced it in all 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2020. The results show that: (1) The overall spatial-temporal evolution of GLUEAL showed an increasing trend, but the disparity between provinces and regions became wider. (2) Most provinces have not yet made significant spatial and temporal jumps. They have high spatial cohesion with specific "path-dependent" characteristics. (3) The Geodetector results reveal that the Number of Rural Labor Force with Higher Education (NRLFHE) and Technology Support for Agriculture (TSA) have insufficient explanatory power on average for GLUEAL. Agricultural Economic Development Level (AEDL), Urbanization Level (UL), Multiple Crop Index (MCI), Planting Structure (PS), Degree of Crop Damage (DCD), Financial support for agriculture (FSA), and Agricultural mechanization level (AML) had stronger explanatory power on average for GLUEAL and were important factors influencing GLUEAL levels. (4) The average influence of AEDL, UL, FSA, and AML on GLUEAL changed from negative to positive. The average influence of MCI and DCD on GLUEAL was negative, and the average influence of PS on GLUEAL changed from positive to negative. This study provides a comprehensive description of the spatial and temporal evolution of GLUEAL in China. It reveals the key factors influencing GLUEAL and analyzes their spatial variations and impact patterns. These findings offer robust evidence for government policymakers to formulate policy measures for sustainable agricultural development and optimized resource allocation, promoting the transformation of agricultural land towards green and low-carbon practices and advancing the achievement of sustainable development goals.