Application of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT radiomic features and machine learning to predict early recurrence of non-small cell lung cancer after curative-intent therapy

To predict the recurrence of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) within 2 years after curative-intent treatment using a machine-learning approach with PET/CT-based radiomics.A total of 77 NSCLC patients who underwent pretreatment 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. Five clinical features (age, sex, tumor stage, tumor histology, and smoking status) and 48 radiomic features extracted from primary tumors on PET were used for binary classifications. These were ranked, and a subset of useful features was selected based on Gini coefficient scores in terms of associations with relapsed status. Areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) were yielded by six machine-learning algorithms (support vector machine, random forest, neural network, naive Bayes, logistic regression, and gradient boosting). Model performances were compared and validated via random sampling.A PET/CT-based radiomic model was developed and validated for predicting the recurrence of NSCLC during the first 2 years after curation. The most important features were SD and variance of standardized uptake value, followed by low-intensity short-zone emphasis and high-intensity zone emphasis. The naive Bayes model with the 15 best-ranked features displayed the best performance (AUC: 0.816). Prediction models using the five best PET-derived features outperformed those using five clinical variables.The machine learning model using PET-derived radiomic features showed good performance for predicting the recurrence of NSCLC during the first 2 years after a curative intent therapy. PET/CT-based radiomic features may help clinicians improve the risk stratification of relapsed NSCLC.