Does Allostatic Load in 50–89‐Year‐Olds Predict the Development of Frailty? Evidence From a National Longitudinal Study Over 12 Years

ABSTRACT Frailty is characterised by a loss of function across several domains but is not an inevitable aspect of ageing and can be reversed with intervention. Determining those who are more likely to become frail before physical deficits become manifest will allow earlier intervention. One promising indicator of the potential for frailty is allostatic load, a physiological status associated with prolonged stress that is, characterised by multisystem dysfunction. Previous research has sought to understand the links between allostatic load and frailty, but has not yet explored whether allostatic load may be a predictive factor at younger ages and—if so—at what age it may be predictive. The present study sets out establish whether allostatic load can be used as a predictive indicator of frailty. Using the English Longitudinal Survey on Ageing (ELSA) data with an anticipated sample of 1500 people between 50 and 89 years old, time series analysis will determine if, and at what age, allostatic load may be predictive of pre‐frailty and frailty. The findings of these analyses may be supportive of early identification of frailty by establishing an age at which a diagnostic test for allostatic load may prove a critical indicator for future frailty.