Minimizing early catheter failure using a risk stratification model for peritoneal dialysis

Early catheter failure is the main reason for peritoneal dialysis (PD) failure, which often causes patients to withdraw from PD. Reducing the early catheter failure is critical to increase the acceptance of PD. The purpose of our study was to establish a risk stratification model to minimize early catheter failure.A retrospective study with patients underwent PD catheter placement from January 2013 to March 2022 was conducted. The primary outcome event was early catheter failure. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were performed to select potential risk predictors. A risk stratification model and a clinical procedure were established. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by external validation.A total of 432 patients were finally enrolled in the study. The risk for early catheter failure was associated with younger age (odds ratio [OR], 0.930; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.884 to 0.972; p = 0.002), lower body mass index (BMI) (OR, 0.797; 95% CI, 0.629 to 0.964; p = 0.036), and lower albumin (ALB) levels (OR, 0.881; 95% CI, 0.782 to 0.985; p = 0.036). The risk stratification model was established and performed great discrimination capability with AUC of 0.832 (cut-off value: 0.061, sensitivity: 0.853, specificity: 0.812). The model proved to be effective in external validation; the rate of early catheter failure was dropped off from 4.1% to 0%.We established an effective risk stratification model, by which patients with high risk of early catheter failure could be precisely identified. The clinical procedure based on the model was proved to be helpful to minimize early catheter failure.