Chinese caterpillar fungus range shifts in response to climate change based on the interspecific relationships on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF, Ophiocordyceps sinensis) is a valuable biological resource found on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The distribution pattern of the CCF and its host insects (Hepialus spp.) and insects’ host plants in response to climate change based on interspecific relationships remains unclear. In this study, we used a MaxEnt model to explore this issue under four climate scenarios. The results showed that the CCF, Hepialus spp., and the high redundancy area of host plants all shared strong similarities in terms of distribution pattern, revealing that the distributions of both the CCF and its host insects depended on high redundancy of host plants. From the Middle Holocene to present and then to 2050, the distribution area suitable for the CCF continues to move and expand to the northwest and to higher elevations. Our models suggest that climate change may contribute to the expansion of the CCF habitat and slow the rapid decrease in the CCF yield resulting from intensive harvesting over recent decades.