Historical causes for the greater proportion of polyploid plants in higher latitudes

Abstract Premise of the Study The proportion of polyploid plants in a community increases with latitude, and different hypotheses have been proposed about which factors drive this pattern. Here, we aim to understand the historical causes of the latitudinal polyploidy gradient using a combination of ancestral state reconstruction methods. Specifically, we assess whether (1) polyploidization enables movement to higher latitudes (i.e., polyploidization precedes occurrences in higher latitudes) or (2) higher latitudes facilitate polyploidization (i.e., occurrence in higher latitudes precedes polyploidization). Methods We reconstruct the ploidy states and ancestral niches of 1,032 angiosperm species at four paleoclimatic time slices ranging from 3.3 million years ago to the present, comprising taxa from four well-represented clades: Onagraceae, Primulaceae, Solanum (Solanaceae), and Pooideae (Poaceae). We use ancestral niche reconstruction models alongside a customized discrete character evolution model to allow reconstruction of states at specific time slices. Patterns of latitudinal movement are reconstructed and compared in relation to inferred ploidy shifts. Key Results We find that no single hypothesis applies equally well across all analyzed clades. While significant differences in median latitudinal occurrence were detected in the largest clade, Pooideae, no significant differences were detected in latitudinal movement in any clade. Conclusions Our preliminary study is the first to attempt to connect ploidy changes to continuous latitudinal movement, but we cannot favor one hypothesis over another. Given that patterns seem to be clade-specific, a larger number of clades must be analyzed in future studies for generalities to be drawn.