Prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background and aim Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) with significant effects on outcome. We aim to compare the left atrial (LA) diameter measurement with HCM-AF Score in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) development in HCM. Methods From the regional cohort of the Campania Region, Italy, 519 HCM patients (38% women, age 45 ± 17 years) without history of AF, were enrolled in the study. The primary clinical endpoint was the development of AF, defined as at least 1 episode documented by ECG. Results During the follow-up (mean 8 ± 6, IQ range 2.5–11.2 years), 99 patients (19%) developed AF. Patients who developed AF were more symptomatic, had higher prevalence of ICD implantation, had larger LA diameter, greater left ventricular (LV) maximal wall thickness and LV outflow tract obstruction (p < 0.01). Both LA diameter and HCM-AF score were higher in patients who developed AF versus those who did not (LA diameter 49 ± 7 versus 43 ± 6 mm; HCM-AF score 22 ± 4 versus 19 ± 4; p < 0.0001); however, ROC curve analysis demonstrated that LA diameter had a significant greater area under the curve than HCM-AF Score (p < 0.0001). At 5 years follow-up, a LA diameter > 46 mm, showed a similar accuracy in predicting AF development of HCM-AF score ≥ 22, which identifies patients at high risk to develop AF. Conclusion Our analysis shows that LA diameter, a worldwide and simple echocardiographic measure, is capable alone to predict AF development in HCM patients.