Machine learning-based prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline in early Parkinson’s disease using multimodal features

Abstract Patients with Parkinson’s Disease (PD) often suffer from cognitive decline. Accurate prediction of cognitive decline is essential for early treatment of at-risk patients. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a multimodal machine learning model for the prediction of continuous cognitive decline in patients with early PD. We included 213 PD patients from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database. Machine learning was used to predict change in Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score using the difference between baseline and 4-years follow-up data as outcome. Input features were categorized into four sets: clinical test scores, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, brain volumes, and genetic variants. All combinations of input feature sets were added to a basic model, which consisted of demographics and baseline cognition. An iterative scheme using RReliefF-based feature ranking and support vector regression in combination with tenfold cross validation was used to determine the optimal number of predictive features and to evaluate model performance for each combination of input feature sets. Our best performing model consisted of a combination of the basic model, clinical test scores and CSF-based biomarkers. This model had 12 features, which included baseline cognition, CSF phosphorylated tau, CSF total tau, CSF amyloid-beta 1-42 , geriatric depression scale (GDS) scores, and anxiety scores. Interestingly, many of the predictive features in our model have previously been associated with Alzheimer’s disease, showing the importance of assessing Alzheimer’s disease pathology in patients with Parkinson’s disease.