Accounting for uncertainties in modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture

Model-based climate change impact assessments involve uncertainties given the many physical, biological and socio-economic processes involved and their complexity. Among other things, uncertainties arise from unknown future development of greenhouse gas emissions and uncertainties in climate change scenarios, input data, model structures and parameters, human error, as well as how adaptations and socio-economic development are taken into account. This chapter reviews recent progress in quantifying or reducing these uncertainties.