The meaning of China’s nuclear modernization

ABSTRACTABSTRACTWill China's nuclear modernization threaten U.S. security? Will it destabilize East Asia, creating new strategic problems for U.S. allies and partners? And will it make conventional war more likely by giving China the confidence to act under the cover of advanced nuclear weapons? Despite the centrality of China in debates over contemporary strategy, there is no consensus answer to these questions. This article surveys U.S perspectives on the meaning of China's nuclear modernization. It describes three competing interpretations, each reflecting a different theory of nuclear strategy: the Nuclear Revolution; Nuclear Superiority; and the Stability-Instability Paradox. We describe the theoretical logic and empirical evidence in support of each claim, and derive future indicators that could help resolve the debate over China's intentions as more evidence becomes available. This exercise also reveals some counterintuitive views about China's nuclear efforts and the prospects for conventional war. The conclusion discusses the implications for theory and policy.KEYWORDS: Chinanuclearstrategic stabilityAsiaUnited States AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank Bradley Hazen, Samanvya Hooda, Surya Midha, and Lisa Michelini for excellent research assistance, and M. Taylor Fravel, Alexander T.J. Lennon, Austin Long, Vipin Narang, the editors, and the reviewers for helpful feedback.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationNotes on contributorsCaitlin TalmadgeCaitlin Talmadge is Associate Professor of Security Studies in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.Joshua RovnerJoshua Rovner is an associate professor in the School of International Service at American University.